Search results for: recession

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Release the doves

The Fed (and all central banks) is highly sensitive to shifts in inflation expectations by either consumers or the markets. The one-year TIP breakeven appears to be pricing in some deflationary pulse and is also pulling down longer term inflation expectations across the curve.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Investing

The perils and pitfalls of buying individual municipal bonds

Volatile ratings leave retail investors at risk. Retail investors could pay higher prices.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing, Muni Perspectives Blog, U.S. Economy

U.S. rates — View update

Compared to the market consensus, our views have been more negative on three key duration fundamentals. Following recent remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, we are now less confident about how to read Yellen’s policy strategy.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Yellen at Jackson Hole

At last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium Janet Yellen was not the dove we thought we knew. Balanced remarks on labor market and cumulative progress toward recovery put her views close to center of FOMC.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Global Economy

Ghost of crises past

The market’s extended period of low volatility was shattered in the past month. While it is possible fear-driven selling could resume or accelerate, we do not believe this is the most likely outcome.

Tagged with: Economy, Investing, Markets

Labor markets in the new digital age

The downside to technological progress is short-term dislocations and job loss for those displaced by automation. Workers with high skills and advanced education command a wage premium while unskilled and lower-skilled workers are displaced which aggravates income inequality.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Where’s Waldo? Be on the lookout for rising costs in a low growth world

Broad measures of cost inflation (PPI and CPI) growth rates have remained near 2% for the past three years. However, sharp increases have occurred in isolated areas like trucking, but the effect is far-reaching.

Tagged with: Equities, Investing

October — It always seems to happen in October!

Markets are now asking what happens if growth slows again in the U.S. and/or weak and slowing growth in Europe, Russia and China drags down U.S. and U.K. growth?

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

The U.S. labor market — Show me the money

It is unclear if recent improvements in U.S. labor market data are due to less slack or government-related measures to support worker income and benefits. Occupations with some scarcity of qualified labor have seen some wage pressures, but the gains are likely due to one-time minimum wage hikes.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Special report — 2014 mid-year review and outlook

Key investment professionals review the first half of 2014 and share their insights into what may be ahead for the second half of the year. Interest rates

Zach Pandl, Portfolio manager and strategist

Review:

Government bond yields declined in early 2014, both in the U.S. and in other developed market economies.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, U.S. Economy
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