Perspectives Blog

To infinity and beyond!

Colin Moore, Global Chief Investment Officer | October 13, 2014

…are root economy, during which we faced multiple years of structurally lower economic growth following the great recession. Six years ago many commentators assumed the recession would be followed by strong growth. Recessions are often caused by the need to correct cyclical excesses. So assuming the underlying trends are strong, it is not unreasonable to expect a strong bounce back. However, I believed then and continue to believe that the great r…

Yellen at Jackson Hole

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | August 25, 2014

…different in tone than her speech on labor markets in March, when she said that the recovery “still feels like a recession to many Americans, and it also looks that way in some economic statistics,” and “In some ways, the job market is tougher now than in any recession.” Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole was not the dove we thought we knew. Her remarks of course included the usual statement that there remains slack in the labor market and that the une…

U.S. rates — View update

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | April 4, 2014

Compared to the market consensus, our views have been more negative on three key duration fundamentals. Following recent remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, we are now less confident about how to read Yellen’s policy strategy. We are still expecting higher rates; however, we now have less conviction that 3-5yr Treasuries will continue to underperform on the curve. For the last couple of months we have argued that portfolios should remain underw…

Release the doves

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | October 20, 2014

The Fed (and all central banks) is highly sensitive to shifts in inflation expectations by either consumers or the markets. The one-year TIP breakeven appears to be pricing in some deflationary pulse and is also pulling down longer term inflation expectations across the curve. My expectations for growth are unchanged at 2.5%-3.0%, but I am concerned there may be some larger shortfall in demand next year for some reason we do not yet know. Whil…

Flexible income strategies — Avoiding side effects from the Fed’s medicine

David King, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager | August 11, 2014

…d the most visible asset classes with the most homogeneity and highest correlations. The U.S. economy went into recession in 2008, and it looked serious. As our fiscal deficit piled up, the political appetite for high government spending waned, leaving monetary policy as the primary available weapon to prevent recession from becoming depression. By mid-2011, Treasury bond yields had reached all-time lows. This strong monetary medicine now seems…

The perils and pitfalls of buying individual municipal bonds

James Dearborn, Head of Municipal Bonds | February 27, 2014

Volatile ratings leave retail investors at risk Retail investors could pay higher prices Deck is stacked against retail investors With an increasing focus on the benefits of owning municipal bonds — attractive after-tax yields, low historical default rates and relatively low volatility — investors are again considering purchasing individual muni bonds. But the deck may be stacked against the retail investor. The allure of owning individual bon…

Special report – 2014 mid-year review and outlook

Columbia Management, Investment Team | June 16, 2014

Key investment professionals review the first half of 2014 and share their insights into what may be ahead for the second half of the year. Interest rates Zach Pandl, Portfolio manager and strategist Review: Government bond yields declined in early 2014, both in the U.S. and in other developed market economies. This surprising change in course after increases in 2013 caught many investors off guard. In our view, declining interest rates reflect…