The Fed’s communication for 2014 looks like the strongest type of forward guidance, one that clarifies the existing policy approach and backs up its statements. Current statements for 2015 and beyond are closer to the weakest type of forward guidance, which means they should be considered less credible. Look for the market’s heavy reliance on
Insights on current market events and investment opportunities.
Industry participants and elected officials have made recent calls to reconsider the 40-year-old ban exporting U.S. oil. Lifting the crude export ban would strengthen the U.S. oil industry as well as the overall economy. Oil producers would naturally benefit from either a full repeal of the ban or any relaxation of U.S. oil export policies;
Existing U.S. home sales have been weak across all regions and this weakness pre-dates this year’s tough winter. Skyrocketing home prices, the surge in interest rates, and meager income growth have hit affordability and dented demand. Housing is no longer the accelerator for economic growth that it was earlier in the cycle. While the jury
By contributing to a 529 plan, you may benefit from tax advantages — without giving up control of plan assets. As an estate planning tool, 529 plans may allow removal of significant assets from your taxable estate. Investment growth in a 529 plan, as well as distributions, is not subject to the new 3.8% net investment income surtax.
Higher earners with taxable investments are most susceptible to triggering the net investment income tax, a surtax of 3.8% that applies to taxable investments. An asset location strategy involves placing a greater percentage of the most tax-sensitive investments in tax-deferred accounts. Retirement plans offer significant opportunities for participants and business owners to reduce taxable income.
The Fed’s communication for 2014 looks like the strongest type of forward guidance, one that clarifies the existing policy approach and backs up statements with some type of commitment. Current statements for 2015 and beyond are closer to the weakest type of forward guidance, a forecast that the central bank will behave in the future
At this week’s meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee looks likely to rework its forward guidance for short-term interest rates once again. We expect revised forward guidance to lean heavily on the idea of “headwinds”; this is a stand-in term for a low equilibrium real rate. We expect that the new guidance will make three main