Perspectives Blog

Retail sector outlook – It’s a share game

Mari Shor, Senior Equity Analyst | March 17, 2014

…ts. The “wealth effect” has greatly impacted consumer confidence among upper-income consumers, and companies targeting these consumers have benefitted to a greater degree from higher tourism-driven spend (both in the U.S. and Europe). As it relates to the lower-income consumers, growth in disposable income is likely to remain under pressure given higher healthcare costs and lower government benefits (including food stamps and unemployment). In th…

Q2 fixed income outlook – Hitting for the cycle

Gene Tannuzzo, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager | March 31, 2014

…reates opportunities for bond investors in the non-agency mortgage market, as well as in certain corporate industries. Internationally, growth has generally lagged the U.S. However, we are now starting to see better growth in Europe and Japan which we expect to broaden to emerging markets as well. Following weakness last year, emerging market debt has posted gains this year, and we expect further strength ahead as volatility subsides. The monetar…

Corporate governance – The next catalyst for Japanese equities

Daisuke Nomoto, Senior Portfolio Manager | August 4, 2014

…e correlation between the level of corporate governance and ROE in Japanese companies. The average ROE of Japanese companies is relatively low from a global perspective (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: ROE: Japan vs. United States and Europe Source: Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC In order to fix this problem, Japan’s Financial Services Agency proposed a Stewardship Code earlier this year. This code is based on a similar concept introduced i…

Global asset allocation outlook (as of March 2014)

Columbia Management Global Asset Allocation Team, | April 7, 2014

After significant gains in 2013, equities took a breather in the first quarter of 2014 while fixed income assets rallied. The S&P 500 Index experienced a fair amount of volatility, retreating 5.8% at the start of the year and then rallying by more than 7% to end the quarter modestly higher. Within international markets, European, emerging markets (EM) and Japanese equities lagged U.S. equities. By the end of the quarter, however, risk assets…

It’s a mobile world

Dave Egan, Senior Equity Analyst | March 10, 2014

…rade from its 3G network to its LTE network, and its competitor China Telecom looks set to do the same starting in the second half of 2014. In addition, 3G Investments in India appear strong and LTE investments by carriers in Europe also appear likely. While the improved outlook we are hearing about could turn out to be just another head fake, the demand appears real and at minimum should at least meet investor expectations, if not beat those exp…

Weekly market summary (1/31/14)

Columbia Management, Investment Team | February 3, 2014

…Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The MSCI EAFE Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the total return of common stocks in 21 developed-market countries within Europe, Australia and the Far East. The MSCI EM Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets.  …

U.S. rates — When the facts change

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | September 10, 2014

…policy—just not through the overall level of rates. Exhibit 3: Yield curve typically much steeper at current rate levels Three other factors argue for caution around interest rate risk in the months ahead: 1. More clarity on Europe. Last week’s action from the European Central Bank (ECB) was an important step toward “goal-oriented monetary policy.” The ECB eased policy because inflation expectations declined to intolerably low levels, and the go…