Search results for: labor

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U.S. rates — Data dependence

Evidence of data dependency at the June FOMC meeting suggests policy will respond to unemployment and inflation surprises. We are more confident the Fed’s reaction function is (nearly) done moving.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing, U.S. Economy

Special report — 2014 mid-year review and outlook

Key investment professionals review the first half of 2014 and share their insights into what may be ahead for the second half of the year. Interest rates

Zach Pandl, Portfolio manager and strategist

Review:

Government bond yields declined in early 2014, both in the U.S. and in other developed market economies.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, U.S. Economy

Global asset allocation outlook (September 2014)

Recent market performance, particularly in September, has been negative across a widespread array of asset classes as we have seen the U.S. dollar exchange rate rise with increasing intensity in recent months. The worst returns, not coincidentally, were delivered by the very assets that have shown historically high sensitivity to dollar strength.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Equities, Fixed Income, Investing, Markets

Investment themes for a “Groundhog Day” world

Pursue a realistic income goal with more than bonds. Common stocks and a variety of other corporate securities may yield as much as bonds with greater return potential over time.

Detroit and Stockton are game changers for municipalities in fiscal distress

Contrary to past experience and conventional wisdom, general obligation bonds are not sacrosanct and very low recovery rates are possible. Pensioners and other politically favored classes are likely to be treated more kindly than bondholders.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing, Muni Perspectives Blog

Rising rates and REIT returns

While REITs typically demonstrate some interest rate sensitivity and sometimes have a “knee-jerk” reaction down when rates first move up, performance has often rebounded. An improving economy has the potential to dampen the effects of duration risk and interest rate sensitivity, given the increased earnings and dividend growth REITs can produce.

Tagged with: Equities, Investing

Municipal pension obligations: Why fear about underfunding may be unjustified, and why Chapter 9 will never become pervasive (save a few outliers)

Concerns about plan solvency are widespread and attention-grabbing, though perhaps unjustified. Collectively, pension funded ratios have declined at the state and local level, though the cost of funding actuarially required contributions remains manageable as a percent of governmental spending.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, New Tax Regime

Bond yields are too low somewhere

Long-maturity bond yields are determined at a global level. Abnormally low forward rates are not just a U.S. phenomenon: there’s been a similar shift in the relationship between rates and growth across developed markets.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Ahead of the trends — Washington update on retirement savings initiatives

Various federal government initiatives, including tax reform, will impact the way Americans save for retirement. Trends to watch include enforcement, pension de-risking and participant empowerment measures.

Tagged with: New Tax Regime, Uncategorized
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