Overall macroeconomic picture in U.S. should push bond yields higher, particularly if the Fed stops its QE program later this year. We remain positive on emerging market debt while maintaining a bias against emerging market equities. Overall equity markets have been strong and current index levels suggest that investors still have confidence in the outlook
Insights on current market events and investment opportunities.
Fed and consensus unemployment forecasts are likely to come down after last week’s jobs report. It is not obvious what lower unemployment rate forecasts mean for U.S. monetary policy. June FOMC meeting should shed light on Fed’s worldview—in particular, whether the U3 unemployment rate still matters. The latest jobs report may look pretty bland on
Several forces are colliding now and causing a downshift in the trajectory of the U.S. housing recovery. Household formations remain at multi-year lows due in large part to mediocre income and job gains in combination with high student loan debt by 25 – 45 year old homebuyers. Fewer homeowners mean missing multipliers for growth. As
We expect an increased divergence in state credit quality in the coming years, compared with what has been seen over the past two decades. While the overall state sector remains robust, we believe notable credit distinctions are beginning to materialize among several weaker states. Investors should be aware of this divergence and seek to be
A framework for identifying capital market states can help set expectations for markets in the aftermath of the recent bond rally. Our framework suggests a highly bullish market state for equities although that market state would shift to bearish if conditions became more neutral. While we expect ongoing strength in equities (which should pressure bond
The Great Moderation was a period of macroeconomic growth and reduced volatility that provided a backdrop to the strong performance of U.S. equities. The lessons hold relevance for equity investors in Asia as big picture conditions for a Great Moderation are starting to fall into place. We believe the “new moderation” mindset will take Asia
For many investors, emerging market debt could be viewed as a core-portfolio holding rather than a short-term tactical investment. 2013’s re-pricing created value in terms of higher yields, a more dedicated investor base and a better relative value argument. Flexibility across the full spectrum of EMD investment opportunities is extremely important, as emerging markets are