The Fed’s communication for 2014 looks like the strongest type of forward guidance, one that clarifies the existing policy approach and backs up statements with some type of commitment. Current statements for 2015 and beyond are closer to the weakest type of forward guidance, a forecast that the central bank will behave in the future
Insights on current market events and investment opportunities.
At this week’s meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee looks likely to rework its forward guidance for short-term interest rates once again. We expect revised forward guidance to lean heavily on the idea of “headwinds”; this is a stand-in term for a low equilibrium real rate. We expect that the new guidance will make three main
Business, economic and political news all point to a strengthening recovery in Europe. We foresee a period of low inflation and low interest rates in Europe. We favor domestic European plays over internationally-exposed stocks, with an overweight stance in banking and telecoms. By Paul Doyle, Head of Europe ex. UK equities and Frederic Jeanmaire, Fund
The outlook for U.S. defense contractors has been improving despite all the negative headlines. Army spending is under pressure, but Navy and Air Force spending remain well supported. The recent Ryan-Murray deal is a substantial positive, with a more predictable DoD outlook. Defense investors have had their share of bad news around the trajectory of
We believe that many of the macro and micro headwinds experienced through 2013 will continue into 2014. Low correlations across apparel retailers and manufacturers provide opportunities to generate alpha through stock picking. Faced with structural and cyclical headwinds, apparel retailers will need global brand strength, enhanced technological capabilities and supply chain expertise to gain market
New and higher taxes will increase what many owe Muni bonds can help mitigate your tax bill Muni yields are attractive vs. many other investment options With tax season fully upon us, many Americans are about to realize the harsh realities of the new tax environment that came into effect January 2013 with the passage
To date, the fallout from the Ukrainian crisis has been largely confined to the emerging market debt, emerging market equity and commodity markets. At current levels, emerging market local currency debt appears to offer value, although we expect both the hard and local currency markets to remain volatile in the short term. Emerging equities reflect