Recent selloff has tested stance that investors would benefit from seeking scarce growth, so long as that growth did not become wildly overvalued. We appear to be moving into a “sorting out” stage where investors begin to more granularly assess both the fundamentals and the incremental opportunities. Patience and tolerance for ongoing bouts of volatility
Insights on current market events and investment opportunities.
First quarter earnings results fell a bit short of the annual pace that we proposed at the beginning of the year. Corporate revenues did not track forecasts due to challenging weather, price increases remaining at the low end and subdued cyclical activity and investment spending. We should probably adjust full year estimates down a bit,
REITs have produced attractive returns YTD being up 13.60% through April (up 16% as of May 12) Fundamentals remain solid, demand for commercial real estate remains strong and companies continue to increase dividends. We remain positive on REITs given the relative safety of their income stream and continued prospects for growth. The REIT market shook
The idea of low neutral funds rate has surprising currency, but could erode with more evidence of solid growth. We believe incoming information suggests the neutral funds rate would be moving higher, not lower. We see neutral funds rate at 3.75-4.00%, which implies an overvalued Treasury market. The hottest topic in the bond market at
From the Columbia Management Quantitative Strategies Equity Research Group 10-year timeline: Four periods of correlations and alpha 2003–2013 A: The pre-crisis period — Prior to the financial crisis, intrastock correlations were the lowest in the last 10 years, and for most of this time alpha was positive. B: The financial crisis — Unsurprisingly, alpha was
Higher-yielding equities underperformed the market last year raising questions about whether dividend investing remains an attractive strategy. Even if rates continue a long-term increase from current levels, we expect that equities sensitivity to rising rates will decline. We believe the drivers that have resulted in historical stock market outperformance from high-yielding equities remain intact. By
The markets have rewarded U.S. corporations that have embraced a discipline of strict cost oversight and a rigorous focus on returning capital to shareholders. We strongly favor such discipline unless it ends up crowding out reinvestment for innovation and profitable revenue growth. From the bare bones levels of the post-crisis period, it is encouraging to