Chief Economist Marie Schofield follows up her recent commentary, “The weight of uncertainty,” with a review of the challenges and risks facing the economy today, as well as an outlook for 2013.
2013 remains a wildcard in our view — keyed off the unknown size of the fiscal adjustment next year and the hit to global growth from the eurozone crisis. Large or small, it means downside risks to growth.
Low growth, and low interest rates, present a somber environment for investors. And the “uncertainty factor” complicates the picture.
The best case for next year can assume a mild 1.5% fiscal adjustment, which will shave growth to near zero and a narrow miss on recession.
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